International Trade & Economics
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| Chemical Industry 2015: Roads to the Future |
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Over the past two years, Cefic has conducted a major study, Chemical Industry 2015, in which some 150 people from the chemical industry have participated (both CEOs and experts). One of the main conclusions from this project is that the EU as a major chemical production region is at risk. |
To secure the industry's long-term competitiveness, decisive action by both industry and authorities is required to steer the critical drivers determining the future of the industry in the right direction over the next ten years.
This study focuses on chemicals excluding pharmaceuticals wherever possible. The reasons for this are the following:
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Over the past years, trends in pharmaceuticals and chemicals have "decoupled". There is a strong asymmetry between the two sectors, with regard to the growth of output, trade surplus and employment. The analysis shows that growth in chemicals output is lower than in pharmaceuticals and the average of total industry. The external EU chemicals trade surplus is still increasing with less dynamics than in pharmaceuticals. Finally, the number of persons directly employed by chemicals is falling dramatically, while employment in pharmaceuticals is likely to experience an encouraging increase. |
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Data shows that, over the years 1996-2001, output in chemicals (2.8%) grew less quickly than in manufacturing industry (2.9%) and pharmaceuticals (5.5%). Furthermore, the share of EU pharmaceuticals trade surplus in the total chemicals surplus (including pharmaceuticals) increased considerably from 23% in 1990, to 40% in 2002. |
The "decoupling" between chemicals and pharmaceuticals is the result of a number of factors including the introduction of different technologies, changes in downstream markets, growth perspectives, drivers of success, and approaches to innovation, and changing shareholder expectations - to which all companies must adapt if they are to survive.
Download the Executive Summary.
The full study (140 pages) "Chemical Industry 2015: Roads to the Future" will be available end of March 2004 in electronic version (.PDF format) at the cost of 500 Euros. For more information, please contact Mrs. Ann Marivoet.
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